Prediction Style Perps

Prediction markets are usually binary (YES/NO). Perpetual markets are continuous.

Trove combines the two by creating perpetual markets whose underlying reference behaves like a probability.

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Why perps + prediction markets stack well

Prediction markets (binary/discrete)

• YES/NO outcome (or small set of outcomes)

• price ≈ probability

• final value realized at resolution

Perpetuals (continuous)

• continuous trading and price discovery

• leverage, margin, liquidations

• you trade the path of belief over time, not only the final outcome

Combining them:

• The prediction market provides a probability-like reference.

• The perp provides liquidity + leverage + continuous expression.

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What the “underlying” is in a prediction-style perp

For a given market, Trove defines a reference probability signal:

• p_ref = probability-like price signal sourced from Polymarket

  • typically derived from the YES outcome token’s market price / midpoint

Then Trove publishes p_ref into Hyperliquid via HIP-3 oracle updates.

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What traders are actually trading

Traders are not buying YES shares.

They are trading a perpetual whose mark/index is driven by p_ref:

• If probability rises: longs benefit

• If probability falls: shorts benefit

• Funding incentivizes convergence toward the reference

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Key design goal: “probability semantics”

To keep the market intuitive:

• The displayed market price should be interpretable as a probability (0%–100%)

• The mark/index should remain bounded within [0, 1]

• Settlement should follow a clear, public resolution rule (see Settlement & Resolution)