Polymarket Oracle

Data sources from Polymarket

Polymarket exposes multiple data feeds that can be used to compute p_ref:

1) WebSocket (low latency)

Use for real-time orderbook updates, price changes, and last trade prices.

Example endpoint (market channel):

wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/market

You subscribe with the outcome token ID(s) you care about (e.g., YES token ID).

2) Gamma API (metadata + indexing)

Use for:

• market discovery (active markets)

• mapping from condition/event to outcome tokens

• reading current outcome prices in a simple format

3) Onchain data (resolution + settlement events)

For resolution-aware operations, monitor:

• resolution events

• final outcome publication

• redemption conditions

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Reference signal definition

Trove defines a reference signal per market:

• p_ref = the probability-like value used as oracle/index input

Common choices:

• Midpoint price of YES token (best bid/ask midpoint)

• A short EMA of midpoint (to reduce microstructure noise)

• A robust median across multiple snapshots (to reduce spikes)

For binary markets, token prices are commonly interpreted within [0, 1] as probability-like values. Trove normalizes the signal to [0, 1] for “probability perps”.

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Operational requirements for HIP-3

HIP-3 requires continuous oracle updates.

Trove runs an oracle pusher service that:

1. Fetches Polymarket data (WebSocket preferred, REST fallback)

2. Computes p_ref (and optionally a smoothed external reference)

3. Submits HIP-3 setOracle updates to Hyperliquid on a fixed cadence

4. Maintains redundancy (multiple feeds / regions / automated failover)

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Security and robustness checklist

• Use multi-region WebSocket + REST fallback

• Track sequence numbers and rebuild local orderbook if out-of-sync

• Enforce strict [0, 1] bounds post-processing

• Add circuit breakers (halt trading) on:

  • feed outage beyond a threshold

  • abnormal deviations / corrupted data

• Log every update and keep an audit trail for post-incident review