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Collectible index prediction markets

How Trove powers collectible index market on Polymarkets

Beyond listing Polymarket binaries as perps on Trove, we are also creating collectible index markets directly on Polymarket.

These are binary markets like:

  • “Pokémon Index > $2,000 by end of December?”

  • “CS2 Skins Index > $X by month-end?”

  • “Labubu Floor Index > $Y by quarter end?”

What “oracle-resolved” means here

For these markets, the YES/NO outcome is determined by Trove’s index oracle value at a specified resolution timestamp.

  • YES if the index is above the threshold at resolution time

  • NO otherwise

The important part is that the resolution is mechanical:

  1. The market specifies an index (e.g. Pokémon Index)

  2. It specifies a threshold (e.g. $2,000)

  3. It specifies an exact timestamp (e.g. Dec 31, 23:59:00 UTC)

  4. Trove’s oracle publishes the index value for that timestamp

  5. Settlement uses that value as the reference

Index oracle characteristics (why it’s usable for resolution)

A collectible index can’t behave like a single exchange price. So the oracle is designed to output a value that is:

  • Timestampable (a value tied to a precise time boundary)

  • Reproducible (methodology is fixed; no discretionary overrides)

  • Robust to thin prints (index methodology avoids single-trade domination)

  • Auditable (inputs + calculations are disclosed per index)

Oracle inputs, index methodology, and the exact timestamp used are shown on the Transparency Dashboard per market.

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